From the rapidly evolving Ebola crisis in Central Africa to the continued conflict in the Middle East and the ongoing war in Russia and Ukraine, a few key locations across the globe are shaping the news.
On July 14, 2026, the UW Now Live hosted experts Mark Copelovitch, Peter Halfmann ’00, PhD’08, and Jon Pevehouse to discuss the risks and the realities of these global hot spots. Mike Knetter, an economist and former CEO of the Wisconsin Foundation and Alumni Association, moderated the discussion.
Iran and the U.S.
Earlier this year, the closing of the Strait of Hormuz massively increased oil prices, which strained China and India and caused the global markets to suffer. In June, a ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. was brokered to open the straits, but in July President Trump announced the Iran-United States ceasefire is over following attacks from both nations.
UW political science professor Jon Pevehouse began the evening’s conversation by highlighting a few key takeaways about the conflict. Iran, he said, gained power by utilizing waterways in the region, including the Strait of Hormuz. With the straits and their naval forces as leverage, Iranians can “hold the global economy hostage” and strategically advance their position. The situation, Pevehouse said, is complicated by domestic politics in Iran. Four main groups are currently vying for control over the county, and the war is spreading Iranian nationalism, which has allowed conservative clerics and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to gain power and push aside the country’s moderates.
According to Pevehouse, the United States domestic political landscape also contributes to the uncertainty of the situation, as the U.S. has tried to balance economic interests with international relationships.
“We’re seeing a lot of mixed messages and a lot of mixed negotiating strategies, because [U.S. leaders] truly are caught,” Pevehouse said. “There’s a lot of debate within the administration.”
Russia’s War in Ukraine
Russia isn’t winning the war, and Ukraine isn’t losing. That’s what political science professor Mark Copelovitch said about the ongoing conflict. Because Ukraine’s drone manufacturing and technology have progressed substantially in the last few years, the country has been able to start targeting oil and military instillations inside Russia. Copelovitch said Ukraine has become a proving ground for the future of warfare, as drone strikes have become the main war-fighting technology. The economies of both countries are also suffering, and Russian oil and gas revenues are collapsing. Because many countries have slowed trade with Russia, that country has become increasingly dependent on Chinese support.
“The war has been economically disastrous for Ukraine,” Copelovitch said. “On the Russian side, Russia’s economy is crashing.”
Shifting U.S. relationships with NATO allies and dwindling aid to Ukraine from the Trump administration also affect the current state of the war, and Copelovitch said America’s wavering stances could be seen as a threat to European security. Because of this, Europe has increased its support for Ukraine, and relations between the country and the EU have tightened.
The Ebola Crisis
Peter Halfmann, a professor of pathobiological sciences, then discussed the ongoing Ebola virus outbreak in Central Africa. The scale of the outbreak, Halfmann said, is most likely underreported. While there are currently 1,830 confirmed cases of Ebola infection, the actual number of infections may be two to four times higher.
“As we can see with this particular outbreak in the [Democratic Republic of Congo], we’re again being really reactive, which is unfortunate,” he said.
The outbreak officially began in May, but the virus was likely spreading through the Congo region as early as March. The virus is transferred through bodily fluids and spreads very easily. Misinformation, poor vaccine availability, lack of funding, and issues with contact tracing have all contributed to the epidemic.
The guests then answered viewer questions and discussed Greenland, the origins of Ebola outbreaks, shifting power in the Middle East, and more.
