With midterm elections less than a week away, many Americans wonder what to expect in our current political landscape — and how campaigns’ increasing use of AI might affect voters. Races across the country are being shaped by these new technologies, a shifting economy, and continued political polarization. But UW experts say election outcomes might not be as unpredictable as they seem, and AI-generated news might not pack much of a punch this election.
“There’s a lot on the ballot,” UW–Madison professor Barry Burden said. “Essentially, everything but the presidency is up for grabs this year.”
On October 28, 2026, the UW Now Live hosted Burden and journalism professor Ross Dahlke ’18 to discuss election patterns and AI. The discussion was moderated by Mike Knetter, the former CEO of the Wisconsin Foundation and Alumni Association who now serves as executive adviser to the UW director of athletics.
“The number one issue in this election is inflation,” Burden said. “About half of respondents, in many surveys including Wisconsin, say that’s the issue for them and nothing else comes close.”
The most important thing to know, Burden said, is how closely election patterns in the midterms track with presidential approval ratings. President Trump’s approval has continued to hit new lows and historical patterns dating back to the Civil War show that the political party that controls the White House usually suffers losses during midterm elections. Burden noted that President Trump’s approval ratings continue to hit new lows, and the polls show the president is performing the poorest with voters’ number one issue of inflation, affordability, and the cost of living, where he scores negative 45 points.
“It's about as low as you can get,” Burden said.
When it comes to party lines and the House of Representatives, he said polls show support for Democrats has continued to accelerate in the last few weeks, while support for Republican candidates has stayed flat, creating a large gap between party supporters — the largest gap since the 2014 midterms. And a large share of voters say they strongly disapprove of President Trump’s performance, which historically indicates a motivation to turn out on election day.
In Wisconsin, closely watched races for governor and the state legislature continue to pull national attention and funding, and concern is growing over the use of AI-generated content in election ads.
Dahlke, who studies how technology influences the ways people get information, said Americans from both political parties are concerned about the influence of AI in the midterm elections. He noted that 68 percent of Americans say AI-generated misinformation is a major issue, and 85 percent of survey respondents say AI political content is likely or very likely to spread misinformation about elections.
As of October 15, 2026, more than $137 million had been spent on political ads that use AI. But, Dahlke said, research shows these AI-generated video ads and messages are no more persuasive than human-generated messages. Although Wisconsin requires AI-generated political ads to include a label, these labels don’t appear to affect an ad’s persuasiveness.
Dahlke has also found that misinformation may have less of an effect that people fear. Although the use of untrustworthy news sites has risen, Dahlke said the use of these sites overall remains relatively low, and voters continue to visit credible online news outlets. “Although it seems like more people visited AI untrustworthy websites in 2024 compared to 2020,” Dahlke said, “it still remains a relatively small portion of the information and news ecosystem.”
