Since the U.S. and Israel began launching airstrikes on Iran on February 28, the conflict has spread across the region, drawing in Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.
But according to Yoshiko Herrera, an affiliate of the UW’s Center for Russia, East Europe, and Central Asia, the biggest beneficiary of the war so far may not be any of the combatants — it may be Russia, which has seen a financial windfall.
Herrera is a professor of political science, and on March 17, she will join with three faculty colleagues — Steven Brooke, Andrew Kydd, and Jon Pevehouse — for a discussion of the conflict in Iran and its consequences on the UW Now Live.Mike Knetter, former CEO of the Wisconsin Foundation and Alumni Association, will host the conversation.
My Chief Area of Research Is:
My chief area of research is Russian politics, specifically identity, nationalism, and political economy. I’m also currently working on a couple of new projects on identity and security work. One is about identity and trust — how to build trust — and another is on how national and ethnic identity is related to international conflict.
On the UW Now Live, I’ll Talk About:
I plan to discuss the role of Russia in the Iran War. Russia is providing targeting intelligence on U.S. forces, as well as drone assistance and training to Iran. Russia benefitted greatly at the start of its war on Ukraine from Iran providing Shahed drones. Later, Iran shared the plans for those drones, which are now built in Russia at a rate of thousands of per month, and Russia uses them to strike cities across Ukraine every day. Recently, in a message of support, President Putin announced Russia’s unwavering support for the new Iranian leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
And most importantly, with the Strait of Hormuz closed, oil prices have skyrocketed, benefitting Russia tremendously. Russia has taken in more than $6 billion since the strikes on Iran started, which is nearly half of what the U.S. has spent. On top of that, the U.S. has eased its sanctions on Russian oil. Hence, this war in Iran has been a huge boost to the Russian economy, just when Russia had been in very serious economic crisis. The high cost of energy supplies may make many countries reconsider their sanctions on Russian oil and gas, which would further strengthen Russia’s global power, which it is currently using against Europe and the United States, not only in its support for Iran, but in its continuing hybrid war operations.
If Viewers Remember Just One Thing, It Should Be:
There is one country that is a 100 percent beneficiary of this war in Iran, and that is Russia. Despite its support for Iran’s war effort, Russia is paying no costs, and on the contrary, reaping the benefits of this massive disruption in world energy markets. Unfortunately, Russia remains dead set on weakening the U.S. and Europe, in addition to its designs on Ukraine, and this war is helping it in that global effort.
To Get Smart Fast, See:
Many newspapers continue to have pretty good coverage of international affairs, including our Wisconsin State Journal. Taking time to read just one or two articles a day on international affairs makes a big difference in staying informed. The New York Times and the Economist provide a lot of broad coverage of events around the world. And for my area of interest on Ukraine, I continue to recommend the podcast from the Telegraph called Ukraine: The Latest. It gives you a quick update on military and diplomatic events in Ukraine and in Europe and also more in-depth interviews on a wide range of topics related to Ukraine. It has a new sister podcast called Iran the Latest. It has a similar format of short war updates followed by interviews with experts on different topics. Both podcasts are free on Apple or Spotify podcasts and also YouTube.
Also, Jon Pevehouse and I are interested in public outreach. Along with some other political science colleagues, we’ve been doing a free lecture series to public libraries and civic groups that we call Facts about U.S. Foreign Policy. If your organization is interested in having us speak, they should email me at yherrera@wisc.edu.
