These perceptions, May believes, have damaged nursing’s status, and are fueling the current nursing shortage. With a weakened reputation, the field has had a more difficult time attracting new initiates over the last ten years, especially when those in its traditional base — middle-class women — have many more professional opportunities than they did in past generations. Currently, there are some 2.3 million RNs around the country, but that number is dropping. During the last decade, the number of new registered nurses — those taking their licensing exams for the first time — fell by nearly 10 percent nationwide. At the same time, some 16.1 percent of all RN positions were vacant at the end of 2004, according to a survey by the Bernard Hodes Group, a recruiting organization.
But these statistics aren’t what truly worries May. Nurses, she notes, always seem to be in short supply. “Throughout the twentieth century, there were episodic and cyclical shortages,” she says. The numbers that really scare her are ages.
This year, the first members of America’s enormous Baby Boom generation will turn sixty, heralding the onset of a vast rise in demand for healthcare services. Meanwhile, the average age of America’s RN population is forty-eight, with just 8.1 percent of working RNs under the age of thirty. Fully half of the nurses employed today will be eligible for retirement within five years. The situation is even more dire for faculty — the average age of a nurse completing a PhD, according to May, is fifty-two.
“We’re facing a perfect storm,” she says. “In the past, nursing shortages were solved by supply and demand — as demand went up, wages rose, and more people entered the profession. But now demand is rising, and so is attrition.”